Market Monitor: Insights from Leonie MacCaan

In the following two-minute video, Leonie MacCaan, Head of Client Investment Solutions at Irish Life Investment Managers shares a cautiously optimistic view of the U.S. economy, highlighting resilience in both consumer and corporate sectors. Despite earlier concerns, tariff uncertainty appears to be easing, with outcomes better than initially feared. Strong Q2 earnings have exceeded forecasts by approximately 8%, and many companies have revised their earnings outlook upward—an uncommon trend for this time of year. 

Leoni notes that inflation is rising modestly, largely driven by tariffs, but remains controlled. The Federal Reserve and markets seem willing to treat this as a temporary effect. While U.S. growth forecasts have been revised downward from 2.3% to 1.6%, the economy continues to grow, albeit slightly below trend. 

She emphasizes several risks to monitor: the long-term impact of trade policy, the potential for stagflation, and elevated equity valuations. Additionally, the recovery in U.S. markets has been narrow, concentrated in a limited number of sectors or companies. 

Despite these risks, the overall economic backdrop remains robust. Leonie supports an overweight position in equities but advises caution, noting that not all of the risk budget is currently being deployed. This balanced approach reflects confidence in market fundamentals while acknowledging the importance of risk management in an uncertain environment. 

 

The views expressed in this video are those of Mawer Investment Management Ltd. as at September 17, 2025 and are subject to change without notice.

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Publication date: October 30, 2025